Every week from now until the World Cup I’m going to analyze a group and give my predictions, moving from the least interesting groups to the most interesting, ending with what I consider the Group of Death. This week it’s Group D.

Group D
1	Mexico
2	Iran
3	Angola
4	Portugal

My Prediction
Group Winner: Mexico
Runner-Up: Portugal

If you ask which group pisses me off the most, the answer is Group D. Why? Because Mexico somehow managed to get seeded in the draw instead of the US. No matter how you shake this out, it makes no sense. The US won the qualifying group. They won the regional tournament. They have a comfortable record against Mexico for the better part of the last decade. They beat them in the last World Cup. No use crying over it, but it still pisses me off that Mexico gets this group, and the US gets theirs. Anyway, I’m shaking things up a little and picking Mexico to top the group—but that says more about their opponents than it does about the Mexicans. Besides, they’re going to play a team from Group C (Argentina:Ivory Coast:Serbia&Mont:Holland) in the second round and will be home shortly after. So Mexico can bite me.

If I coached a team with a decent amount of talent, I’d want them to play Iran in the first round. Why? Because Middle Eastern teams have a way of being solid but not spectacular. You need to work to beat them, but that’s just the thing: they usually lose. I expect Iran to put on a brave face and play some good footie but, ultimately, they’ll go 0-1-2 or even 0-0-3 in this group.

African teams are always an X factor and Angola definitely fits the bill. They barely edged out Nigeria in qualifying which says something about their ability, but is it enough? Probably not. The team is young and full of energy but that can be a liability against a canny opponent. Then again, no one expected Senegal to beat defending champs France in the opening match of ’02—but that was then, this is now. I think the Angolese may be able to go 1-1-1 in this group but it won’t be enough.

Portugal‘s “Golden Generation” of players have won squat, squandering what was probably their last chance at glory in Euro ’04. They still have loads of talent but their biggest hurdle will be overcoming their apathy. This team can’t win the World Cup and you get the feeling they know that. Mexico and Angola both represent potential pitfalls but the order of their games (Iran:Angola:Mexico) favors them. Iran should be a confidence booster and if they can manage at least a draw with Angola—which they surely can—then they enter their match with Mexico knowing that a draw will likely be good for both teams. I expect them to go 1-2-0 or 2-1-0. Like Mexico, I don’t see them beating the teams advancing from Group C in the second round, which is another reason this group fails to hold my interest.

I should say this group has the potential to be quite interesting if the opening games (Mexico v Angola, Iran v Portugal) don’t go as expected. Anything but full points from these matches will make it very interesting indeed for Mexico or Portugal; but having said that, I don’t think it will happen. These two teams will likely win their openers and go into cruise control.

Which makes this the second-most boring group in my book.

Previous weeks: Group F
Next week, Group G: France, Switzerland, South Korea, Togo

Current Mood – Surprisingly Alert |
Currently Listening To – The Ramones – “Anthology (Disc 2)”