Every week from now until the World Cup I’m going to analyze a group and give my predictions, moving from the least interesting groups to the most interesting, ending with what I consider the Group of Death. This week it’s Group F.
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Group F
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1
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 Brazil |
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2
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 Croatia |
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3
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 Australia |
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4
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 Japan |
My Prediction
Group Winner:Brazil
Runner-Up:Croatia
The real question of Germany ’06 is whether anyone can beat Brazil. My answer? No. The Brazilians are favorites to win the whole thing. Some teams might be able to push them. Argentina. Holland maybe, if they’re on form. Germany as hosts. But realistically teams need to be on their game and hope Brazil has an off-day to have any hope. Brazil has been in the final for the last four World Cups and won three of them, losing in ’98 to hosts France. That year the Brazilians were beat by their own egos. I don’t think that will happen this time around. Expect them to emerge from this group with lopsided wins and a +10 goal differential and no goals against.
Croatia is the team best suited to follow Brazil out of the group. They won a difficult group in European qualifying that included Sweden and Bulgaria, so the Croats aren’t push overs and they’ll be playing at home in Germany, for all intents and purposes. They’re not going to light up the tournament but they’ll get out of the first round and, depending on the match-up in the second round, could earn a quarterfinal berth. But no further than that.
Australia advanced by beating Uruguay in the play-offs. The Aussies apparently only to come World Cups in Germany since that’s where the tournament was the last time they qualified. In 1974. They’ve got a good coach and several decent players that play their club footie in England, but inexperience will do them in. Brazil could conceivably pump four or five past them and I don’t see them outplaying Croatia. So thanks for coming.
Another “thanks for coming” team is Japan. By far the most polite team in the world, Japan has the extreme misfortune of being in the same group as the world champs. Japan played the US earlier this year and looked pretty naive in defense. Brazil should glide past them and I think they won’t fare well against the Croatian’s hard-nosed game. Playing European teams in Europe is hard enough without having Brazil sitting on your chest and making you slap yourself in the face with your own hands.
Summary
All eyes will be on Brazil to see in how they deal with teams they should be able to handle with ease. The team looked jaded in their first round games in ’98 but posted 11 goals in their first three games of ’02. The most interesting thing about this group is seeing who comes in third. Of course, the third place team goes home anyway which is why Group F is the least interesting of the bunch.
Next week, Group D: Mexico, Iran, Angola, Portugal
Current Mood – Sure | 
Currently Listening To – Joe Strummer – “Earthquake Weather”
2 Comments
Do you plan on keeping us on edge as to your schedule? I want Group E, because of the US focus, but you’ll probably save that until the end, huh?
Also, I watched the Galaxy/Rev game last week, and Clint Dempsey looked really good. He might not have looked as good though without the announcers talking him up as if he were the next Ronaldo.
Any chance he’s good enough yet to see action in Germany? And why isn’t the MLS taking a hiatus during the Cup?
Question 1: Yes. Although I will tip my hand and say that I think the US is in one of the two toughest groups, so that may be an indication of when I talk about Group E.
Question 2: Yes, I think Dempsey will get some playing time in Germany. He really stood out the last couple of friendlies. Depending on formations and injuries, he could see significant time.
Question 3: MLS has decided that there’s more to lose than gain by taking a break. In 1998, attendances dipped during the World Cup but didn’t fall off the table. The scheduling is such that if they extended the season to account for the hiatus, the league final would be further against the NFL and college football and they don’t want that. It’s really a no-win either way. One interesting option is MLS adopting an August to May calendar, using a winter break in January. This is what a lot of leagues in Europe do and its the solution preferred by FIFA. I don’t think it’ll ever happen, but it would be interesting.
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